Progression Statistics 2025
Two Stars and Two Wishes
2026-05-13
Overview
The Publication
Progression Statistics 2025 - Official Statistics in Development
Tracks learner movement across National Qualifications:
- N4 -> N5
- N5 -> Higher
- Higher -> Advanced Higher
- Re-sits at N5 and Higher
This Review
Focuses on the figues and tables on the published page
Two elements worthy of positive recognition
Two areas where further development could be made
Summary
| Star 1 | Subject ranking figures - information-rich; readable; tell a story for several subjects |
| Star 2 | Dual progression perspective - looks both forwards and backwards; avoids misleading conclusions |
| Wish 1 | Cohort proportion figures - curved lines mislead; a parallel approach reveals hidden patterns |
| Wish 2 | Page structure - figures buried; audience and purpose could be clearer |
Star 1: The Subject Ranking Figures
Star 1: The Subject Ranking Figures
Star 1: The Subject Ranking Figures
Tip
Each figure shows simultaneously:
- Which subjects have the highest counts or proportions
- How those rankings have changed year on year
- Relative stability or changeability of subject position
Why not a table..?
Tip
What makes them work:
- Consistent colour palette across figures
- Rank position labelled directly on the figure
- Three years shown, enabling trend reading
- Compact - high information density per unit of space
Star 1: The Subject Ranking Figures
Star 2: The Dual Perspective on Progression
Star 2: The Dual Perspective on Progression
Star 2: The Dual Perspective on Progression
Two complementary measures presented together for each transition:
Proportion Progressing
Of all N4 learners, how many moved to N5?
Describes behaviour and choices of the originating cohort
-> Useful for understanding entry decisions and pathways
Proportion with Prior Attainment
Of all N5 learners, how many came from N4?
Describes the composition of the receiving cohort
-> Useful for understanding where learners come from
Tip
These answer different questions.
A subject could have a low progression rate and a high prior attainment proportion - and both facts would be important. Giving both avoids misleading conclusions that either measure alone might suggest.
Wish 1: The Cohort Proportion Figures
Wish 1: The Cohort Proportion Figures
Wish 1: The Cohort Proportion Figures
What the current figures do:
Each cohort proportion figure shows a curved area chart transitioning between two data points - one for each year
Two problems with this approach:
Information poor
Each figure uses considerable space to convey only two numbers
Multiple separate figures prevent cross-subject comparison, which is often exactly what a reader wants to do
The curve is misleading
A smooth curve between two discrete annual measurements implies a continuous trend that does not exist
There is no data between 2024 and 2025 - the curve is an artefact of the chart type, not a feature of the data
Wish 1: A Better Alternative
An alternative approach - plotting all progression routes together on shared axes:
Wish 1: What This Reveals
Tip
Plotting both measures together on shared axes reveals a pattern invisible in the current page:
- The proportion of N4 learners progressing to N5 increased
- The proportion of N5 learners who came from N4 decreased
These move in opposite directions simultaneously
- More N5 learners are arriving by routes the page does not capture?
- …Or are more than half are dropping out of the pipeline?
Why this matters
This is not a visualisation preference - it is a substantive finding about learner pathways that the current design makes structurally difficult to see
Wish 2: Page Structure and Audience
Wish 2: Page Structure and Audience
The current structure:
Tables are the default view - figures are hidden in accordions
The problem
- Figures are the most accessible entry point for a non-specialist reader
- Hiding them behind a click means many users will never see them
- Tables and figures carry different information - neither should be purely secondary
- The page does not clearly signal who it is written for
Policy makers? Teachers? Researchers? Parents?
A better approach
Lead with figures - they orient the reader
Use tables as supporting detail for those who want it
More descriptive figure captions that explain what to look for, not just what is shown
A brief audience statement at the outset would help every reader calibrate their engagement
Summary
| Star 1 | Subject ranking figures - information-rich, readable, multi-dimensional |
| Star 2 | Dual progression perspective - methodologically thoughtful, avoids misleading conclusions |
| Wish 1 | Cohort proportion figures - curved lines mislead; a parallel approach reveals hidden patterns |
| Wish 2 | Page structure - figures buried; audience and purpose could be clearer |
The page represents a strong foundation - these developments would significantly extend its value to diverse users